El hielo de la Antártida se acerca a niveles mínimos históricos

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Según los especialistas, las condiciones cálidas en la zona y los patrones de vientos alrededor de la Antártida, presentes meses antes, explican en gran medida el fenómeno.

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Estas condiciones también permiten generar pronósticos sobre la cobertura de hielo marino con más de seis meses de anticipación, lo que podría beneficiar los modelos meteorológicos y climáticos.

[{"selector":"#anim-4ecc2d64-f8af-4a4c-98d6-081c03102b92","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2318dc2b-c4ca-4708-aff0-0307f258c8ac","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-90.27356%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-76b67940-5618-4926-a2d9-2fe82eb178d5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-41b23efd-2e7a-4bd9-a23b-2f03d6324d84","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b7906562-3634-4652-ae98-5c408f4c7cab","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8edea31b-2121-4dad-ba8d-5ad143af123e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 230.79925%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

[{"selector":"#anim-fa75ec5c-2b5c-4184-b00b-57f6803ef75b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-66370b77-8b51-46a5-ac87-6c8f1991146e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -135.54805%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-38e498aa-55ee-48eb-99a2-e7b0d23b1fcb","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-207fa4ad-c2b9-4118-8c04-eea30a677eb4","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-95.13677%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-fc0e6f88-4d27-40f6-adcc-9e937ad0d6ab","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-dbf7b90d-04db-4b86-be3f-fac8f17d8c02","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-777a3d15-6b92-4980-8b43-2ae18ec80d47","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-060ef260-452f-4929-becb-ba12fb22d560","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 142.67806%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] El estudio, publicado en la revista Communications Earth & Environment , utilizó un modelo climático global para simular los efectos de las temperaturas oceánicas y del aire, junto con fenómenos climáticos de largo plazo como El Niño y La Niña, en la cobertura de hielo marino.

[{"selector":"#anim-43db6da3-14b6-4928-8a2f-14d7e40dc3a7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-71db0287-9bed-4bb7-9274-a86fe41881ab","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 115.75890%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-456fb323-b8ef-4e6a-9e73-2f55b05affb6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7cdf48e8-d460-4214-a921-33a2269ea991","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(72.94833%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ceba648a-628d-4c38-8f25-375c73825f5e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-338337ae-991a-4b66-95ca-4a6446c3cd21","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 19.13581%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6f99ea92-7681-46de-8268-f2867e6f813a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-75515075-41ea-4de0-8505-284a0ad139ff","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -156.1214%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] “Desde el inicio del registro satelital en 1978, los tres mínimos de verano más bajos en el área de hielo marino antártico ocurrieron en los últimos siete años y culminaron en un hielo marino récord en el invierno austral de 2023″, señaló el estudio.

[{"selector":"#anim-2ab3e581-cc80-4307-b71f-ceba87ca352d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bcbcc5aa-dabc-4aa0-8061-ddc55ff355df","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -136.15884%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-40cca449-61c7-4c30-9104-1a2f30c7b0c4","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-fa720503-0844-4611-b1fd-a44c0245d0ad","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-95.13677%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f4d48c9c-6149-448a-9ea5-5af8943186a0","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5401d40f-d239-454a-b3de-b3518935a7be","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9708d0af-4e9c-494b-a50c-3dc000875842","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-34ad6d99-73a2-44b1-b8cf-b802cd5791dd","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 130.89547%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Los hallazgos indicaron que, contrario a lo que se pensaba, el evento El Niño de 2023 tuvo un impacto menor. En su lugar, un patrón arqueado de vientos regionales y sus efectos en las temperaturas oceánicas meses antes del mínimo histórico explicaron el 70% de la reducción en la cobertura de hielo marino ese año.

[{"selector":"#anim-4d1c9664-c45a-4801-b199-583d6465a388","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1a008a7d-de0f-4b4e-a2fa-882d104841a8","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-90.27356%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4cc9e173-45fe-4f5b-8b61-c4a823fed8b5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e3c82412-3f12-45ce-b561-85d5ce02c1a9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-33788eee-2159-40a5-b875-9eb7bb036612","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c831d483-d924-417c-a6cc-3d3bc8671af4","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 205.85469%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Estos vientos generan una “mezcla” en el Océano Austral que eleva aguas cálidas profundas hacia la superficie, lo que impide el crecimiento del hielo, según los autores. Además, desplazan el hielo marino hacia el polo sur, lo que limita su expansión hacia el norte, transportan calor desde latitudes más bajas y crean olas que fracturan el hielo.

Al aplicar el mismo enfoque en 2024, los investigadores predijeron correctamente que ese año también tuvo una baja cobertura de hielo marino.

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[{"selector":"#anim-8b9845af-4792-4d99-b271-dae0600724a2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bf62b80a-8951-4987-bf89-bb03cb178af5","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-82.67477%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-32871baf-6fe7-4980-8d4e-c70d12e70253","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-03da7bbe-78fc-499d-8ea1-6afc882f3ae2","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3b0414cb-ca2d-40db-92cb-6c500e8c90a9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-62ad88b5-68d8-4536-865b-3f6f1568be59","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 185.55187%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] El hielo marino antártico desempeña un papel crucial en los ecosistemas marinos y costeros, así como en las interacciones entre el océano y la atmósfera en el Océano Austral. “Es un elemento fundamental para controlar el ritmo del calentamiento global y la estabilidad del hielo en el continente antártico ”, afirmó Zac Espinosa, autor principal del estudio y estudiante de doctorado en ciencias atmosféricas y climáticas en la UW

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