¿Cuánto costará el dólar el próximo año?

Especialistas locales e internacionales evaluaron el futuro del tipo de cambio en un contexto de reformas económicas y estabilidad fiscal.

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Las estimaciones para diciembre de 2025 reflejan un rango amplio condicionado por factores internos y externos, mientras analistas anticipan menor inflación y mayor crecimiento.

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[{"selector":"#anim-b4ff6909-c388-4865-8dff-57ec973464fa","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-68b9f700-73a4-42ac-9764-104f6c916e9e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -132.16736%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1669979b-be63-45d9-87c1-33082bd88a48","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4658b661-efca-41ce-9035-d0e0eb05e336","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-100%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-51411406-d3e5-4323-b2c6-6744fa3f5eee","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-07347fd8-a3c1-474b-a804-9daad8855953","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-624f5bb3-5e1e-4b13-8a8f-d88e72ac7a45","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-40202133-8b48-439b-b27e-e2d1bfda73f5","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 140.62678%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Según el promedio de los valores brindados por las principales consultoras, el dólar mayorista alcanzará los $1.403 en diciembre del próximo año. Este dato representa una corrección a la baja respecto al relevamiento anterior, que situaba el tipo de cambio en $1.540 .

El Presupuesto 2025, presentado por el ministro de Economía, Luis “Toto” Caputo, proyectó un valor de $1.207 para el cierre del próximo año.

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[{"selector":"#anim-d58cf61e-be39-4a84-a0b8-54a5e724adbf","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7ae19f21-b37d-4309-9494-bd182c55dbed","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-91.54412%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-44c57378-abfe-4e8c-abab-2b5fe2b01cd8","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-965056aa-6bc2-4ea7-9e03-1549f5b43f3e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(89.13649%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a616b164-68c9-42fe-a976-b5afee4cbe49","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b377161a-1477-44ef-96ba-6a87165b8121","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 269.90742%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] La brecha entre las proyecciones del Gobierno y las consultoras dependerá de variables como la acumulación de reservas, la estabilidad cambiaria y el impacto de las elecciones de medio término de octubre.

[{"selector":"#anim-65a5ab95-ae99-45d6-909e-651c6d8351a2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8b6b9775-6460-4f8c-800b-b610f9264bd0","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-98.84793%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e86e184a-7a1e-4c11-8b8b-b73e9de13304","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e9a7ddf9-d65f-49f6-a1ed-330d14b05d95","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(73.25228%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-eb117fa4-c5e1-4e29-96db-cfa6a3791e22","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-418696f3-525c-4a4f-91ca-0bf0ed0e1f4c","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 19.13581%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0d5cf821-a4f0-41ac-8ee8-9db16a19dd2d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0a531543-a3eb-4ecb-bbb8-6391dbbf67af","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -152.5926%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] El Banco Central mantiene una política de crawling peg , ajustando el tipo de cambio oficial a un ritmo mensual del 2%. Este mecanismo podría reducirse a un 1% en los primeros meses de 2025, siempre que la inflación y la estabilidad cambiaria lo permitan.

Algunos economistas señalan que el actual nivel de la brecha cambiaria, que se ubica en torno al 20%, favorece un clima de mayor previsibilidad.

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Sin embargo, la depreciación del peso continuará presionando los precios, manteniendo niveles superiores a los de otros países de la región.

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