Cuatro causas que impiden salir del cepo en el corto plazo

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El "cepo" inició en la segunda presidencia de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner entre 2011 y 2015. En diciembre del 2015, a los pocos días de asumir la presidencia, Mauricio Macri lo levantó.

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¿Cuáles son las causas que impiden que Argentina salga del "cepo" como quiere el Gobierno?

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1. Ancla cambiaria: el gobierno está utilizando una política de devaluación controlada (crawling peg) para estabilizar los precios, pero esto dificulta la salida del cepo cambiario en el corto plazo.

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2. Riesgo Cambiario: levantar el cepo podría llevar a un fuerte salto en el tipo de cambio oficial, lo que podría desestabilizar la economía y aumentar la inflación, como ocurrió en 2015.

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3. Reservas del Banco Central: la falta de dólares líquidos en las reservas internacionales limita la capacidad del Central para intervenir en el mercado de cambios, lo que hace peligrosa la liberación del tipo de cambio.

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